Foresight Models

See below for a summary of key models, and modelling resources used in major foresight initiatives and studies.

(International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade)

IFPRI

IMPACT is a network of linked economic, water, and crop models. At its core is a partial equilibrium (PE) multi-market economic model, which simulates national and international agricultural markets. It covers over 40 commodities globally, and disaggregates the world into 281 ‘food producing units’ (FPUs), which represent the spatial intersection of 115 economic regions and 126 water basins. Read More

(Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool)

The MAGNET consortium is led by LEI Wageningen UR and includes the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) and the Thünen-Institute (TI)

The model is a multi-sector, multi-region computable, general equlibrium model of the global economy. It is widely used to simulate the effects of agricultural, trade, land, and biofuel policies on the global economy, as well as for long-term projections (IPCC SSP scenarios and mitigation and adaptation options). Read More

(Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project)

AgMIP is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modelling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. Read More

(Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe)

Coordinated by the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), and implemented by at 17 other collaborative partners

CLIMSAVE is a pan-European project that developed a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development at regional and European scales. Read More

(GlobAgri-Agrimonde-Terra tool)

GlobAgri Platform by CIRAD & INRA

The tool resulting from the GlobAgri Platform. It includes 33 aggregates of agri-food products and covers 14 broad regions. It is a biomass balance model accounting for physical flows under physical constraints. Read More

(Global Biosphere Management Model)

IIASA

GLOBIOM is a global, recursively dynamic, and partial equilibrium model assessing the competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry. Read More

(Sustainable and Healthy, but also Affordable, Reliable and Preferred by consumers)

Wageningen University & Research

SHARP has its origins in human nutrition and operations research. Detail in terms of individual consumers as well as products consumed is needed to assess the health implications of a specific combination of foods for a specific type of individual. Read More

(Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food and Nutrition Security)

The SUSFANS modelling toolbox provides a forward-looking description of the behaviour of key actors in response to each other, allowing an assessment of potential interventions aiming at a more healthy sustainable European diet. It includes MAGNET, SHARP & DIET, GLOBIOM/AGRIP, RICE4CAST & CAPRI. Read More

(World Food System Model)

IIASA

The model provides a framework for analyzing the world food system, viewing national food and agricultural components as embedded in national economies, which in turn interact with each other at the international trade level. It is a general equilibrium model. Read More

(Modelling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium)

CEPII

MIRAGE is a multi-sectoral and multi-regional computable general equilibrium model dedicated to trade policy analysis. It encompasses insights of imperfect competition, product differentiation by quality and origin, as well as foreign direct investment in a sequential dynamic framework where installed capital is immobile. Read More

(Global Agriculture Perspectives System)

FAO

GAPS is used to study the development of global food markets in the long-term and to assess how socioeconomic fluctuations, climate change and investment pay-offs may affect future global food demand. Read More

OECD & FAO

Aglink-Cosimo is an economic model that analyses supply and demand of world agriculture. It used to generate the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook and policy scenario analysis. Read More

(Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) 

FAO in partnership with European research institutes

An integrated package of models to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture (including forestry), water resources and the national economy. Read More

(Policy Evaluation Model)

A partial equilibrium model of agricultural production that connects data in the PSE database with economic outcomes in terms of production, trade, and welfare. Read More

(Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment)

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

IMAGE is designed to capture interactions between economic activity, land use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate, crop yields and other environmental variables. Read More

(Agricultural Production, Planning and Allocation Model)

IIASA

APPA is a geographically detailed stochastic and dynamic model for spatio-temporal planning of agricultural activities to meet food security goals under natural and anthropogenic risks, resource constraints, and social targets. Read More

(The Environmental Policy Integrated Model)

IIASA & USDA

EPIC is used to compare land and forest management systems and their effects on environmental indicators like water availability, nitrogen and phosphorous levels in soil, and greenhouse gas emissions. Read More

(Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus)

IIASA

A systems dynamics model of social, economic, and environmental earth systems and their interdependencies. Read More

(Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact Modelling System)

Coordinated by ILR – University Bonn + EU

CAPRI is a tool for extant impact assessment of agriculture and international trade policies focusing on the EU. It is an economic partial comparative static equilibrium model for agriculture with two linked modules. Read More

Wageningen University and Research

HORTUS is a partial equilibrium model (supply and demand are explicitly calculated for only one sector) of horticulture in European countries with a high level of detail in horticulture sectors. Read More