The last component of the framework involves the creation of strategies, policies, and actions to respond to the scenarios and visions above. The end point of the approach is for stakeholders to identify strategies for systemic changes that would make desired futures more rather than less likely. Such strategic thinking is based on recognising the dynamics of complex systems where positives can be encouraged and negatives dampened but linear and predictable change is not feasible.
Theory of Change:
Theory of Change is a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desirable change is expected to happen in a specific context. It focuses on identifying the desired long-term goals and works back to identify the steps and processes needed to make that visualized future happen. In other words, a theory of change provides the narrative around an impact pathway and require a clear articulation of the inputs and outputs of a program or an intervention, and the assumptions underpinning these relationships. Theories of change approaches can help facilitate learning within and between organizations and have implications for monitoring and transparency of interventions. The example below is CARE’s Theory of Change for Food & Nutrition Security and Resilience to Climate Change.